The post-COVID world this week: Europe closes again, economic optimism fades, but a promising example in Miami

The Future is Here: A Guide to the Post-COVID World 10/30/2020

Welcome to your guide to where the world is heading during the pandemic and beyond. Each week, we’ll bring you the latest and greatest expert information and international news on how the coronavirus is reshaping international business. To stay informed every week, sign up for the newsletter here.

Note: The Future Is Here won’t be out in an edition on November 6, but will resume with a release on November 13.

Let’s go around the world, in seven minutes or less.

In the featured articles this week:

  • France and Germany ordered shutdowns, while Melbourne, Australia lifted one, although its 111-day shutdown came at a heavy price.
  • It’s hard to say where we are on the economic recovery graph no matter what the letter is, as Canada and Singapore forecast declining or uneven growth.
  • Have you ever wondered where planes are stored during the pandemic? An airplane parking lot in the middle of nowhere is getting more and more crowded.
  • But first, we have a special dispatch from Andrea Snyder of the Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center at the Atlantic Council. Here’s his take on this week’s big story.

The big story

The main theme of this week: How Miami’s resilience can inspire cities around the world

The shift is one of the latest global trends amid the pandemic, and Miami-Dade County is one of the pioneers.

In a new snapshot of the city’s resilience, the Resilience Center explores how Miami reoriented existing strategies to meet community needs during the coronavirus crisis.

As Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber told the Atlantic Council in April, his city was the first in Florida to implement a home shelter ordinance. And when students transitioned to home schooling, the city worked with AT&T and Comcast to expand internet access, while the local school board distributed laptops to students to make sure every student could attend his classes. So how has Miami mobilized so quickly in response to COVID-19, and what can other cities learn about the county’s resilience in times of crisis?

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Past adversity can forge future resilience

Miami’s preparation can be attributed in part to her previous experience facing similar challenges. In 2016, the city was considered “ground zero” for the transmission of the Zika virus. At the time, Miami-Dade Resiliency Officer Jim Murley and other government officials developed a communications strategy to educate residents about possible dangers and necessary precautions regarding the disease. transmitted by mosquitoes. Miami then incorporated the approach into its COVID-19 strategy.

Miami also already had a large network of nonprofits accustomed to dealing with hurricanes, sea level rise, unemployment and food insecurity throughout the city. These organizations have now turned to contain COVID-19. They have also succeeded in building trust among residents, which has made the coronavirus awareness and information campaigns more effective.

The heart of Miami’s response is that already established community leaders in the private and public sectors have adapted their experiences in dealing with coastal vulnerabilities, epidemics and economic hardship to help their constituents deal with a new threat.

The bottom line: The main lesson from Miami is that instead of developing plans from the ground up to respond to new shocks like the pandemic, governments should leverage their existing resources to work for recovery and resilience. To rebuild better, government officials, nonprofits, and civil society groups need to be nimble and rely on each other for guidance.

Photo courtesy of Reuters / Vidal Targui / Andina / Latin American News Agency.

The world at a glance

Insights from around the world, in ten bullets or less

  • France has gone back in time with the spring closures. France is reverting to a national lockdown almost as severe as the one it imposed in the spring, with measures requiring people to stay at home except to buy essentials, see a doctor or exercise for an hour per day, reports Reuters. Anyone setting foot outside must have a document justifying their trips. Germany will close bars and restaurants for a month from November 2 as coronavirus infections rise across Europe, according to the newswire. The UK continues to resist following France and Germany in a second lockdown.
  • QUOTE: “Europe is again at the epicenter of this pandemic,” the European director of the World Health Organization, Dr Hans Kluge, told European health ministers, reports the Associated Press. Testing systems have failed to keep up with widespread levels of new cases, he said.
  • Whether it’s K-shaped, V-shaped, or W-shaped, the recovery phase of the pandemic is still out of reach for many. Canada lowered its economic growth forecast for 2021, while Singapore’s central bank said its recovery would be “gradual and uneven.” Meanwhile, eurozone banks have refrained from lending to businesses and households in the region as they prepare for a wave of loans that will not be repaid, reports the Financial Times.
  • The third trimester rash in the United States is not just an upward pointing arrow. While US economic growth was the fastest in the third quarter of post-war history, this masks concerns that the rebound from coronavirus lockdowns has been incomplete and uneven, according to Financial Times. And that’s not all, according to the Associated Press; the resurgence of COVID-19 infections in the United States and Europe is jeopardizing economic rebounds on both sides of the Atlantic, the press service reports.
  • But some banks are showing signs of a recovery in COVID. Deutsche Bank returned to profitability in the third quarter thanks to the strong performance of its investment bank, while HSBC achieved profits above analysts’ expectations, according to CNBC. Meanwhile, Japanese bank Nomura posted one of its best half-yearly performances in two decades, as the pandemic sparked a wave of mergers and acquisitions involving Japanese companies it advises, reports the Financial Times.
  • QUOTE: “China’s role as a creditor now means that debt problems are not just economic, but geopolitical,” writes Dambisa Moyo in the Financial Times. “China is one of the United States’ largest lenders – which gives the country’s politicians enormous leverage – and also now the largest lender to emerging economies.”
  • New infections continue to plague the airline industry. Planner Boeing plans to cut another seven thousand jobs by the end of the year as the global airline industry continues to falter amid a further rise in coronavirus cases, the Wall Street Journal reports. And the pain keeps coming: Air traffic is expected to drop in half this year and remain depressed next year and beyond. Meanwhile, planes no longer see the blue of the sky and see the red of the desert: An aircraft parking lot in the middle of the Australian Red Center desert is busier than ever, Bloomberg reports, as international travel to Asia- Pacific remains depressed and over a hundred planes need storage and attention while sitting idle.
  • The numbers say … London’s Heathrow Airport now expects 37 million passengers to pass through its terminals in 2021, up from 63 million expected in June, reports CNBC. The prediction fell just as Heathrow lost the distinction of being Europe’s busiest airport to Charles de Gaulle in Paris. Elsewhere in Europe, one in four airports will face insolvency unless travel demand recovers by the end of the year, Bloomberg reports.
  • Melbourne’s 111-day lockdown has left a low number of infections but a heavy toll. One of the world’s longest COVID-19 shutdowns has ended, allowing an estimated five million people in the Australian city to leave their homes and book a meal or drink, the Washington Post reports. The city reported no new cases on October 26 and 27, but the region’s economy and the mental health of the population suffered greatly, the Post added. Taiwan, meanwhile, has recorded two hundred days without a new local infection, according to Bloomberg. Experts attribute its success in part to the early closure of borders and the implementation of strict controls on travel.
  • Canada learned from Thanksgiving, but will the United States heed the warning? Canada saw a spike in coronavirus cases after Thanksgiving celebrations took place on the second Monday in October, according to the Washington Post. As cases in the United States skyrocket again, the country should take note of its northern neighbor’s experience as the holiday season approaches, the Post adds.
  • Holiday window shopping turns into on-screen shopping during the pandemic. U.S. consumers are expected to spend $ 189 billion online during the November and December holidays, a third more than a year ago, according to the Financial Times. The rise is another blow to brick and mortar stores across the country. But parcel delivery company UPS benefited as more people shopped online during COVID-19 restrictions, with quarterly profit increasing 12%.

The scoop inside

Atlantic Council Perspectives

New Atlanticist
Vasuki Shastry and Jeremy Mark

October 22, 2020

Let them eat the debt: the disappointing G20 response to the pandemic in developing countries

New Atlanticist
Vasuki Shastry and Jeremy Mark

On the crucial issue of support for poor countries battling the economic impact of the global pandemic, officials described the meetings as memorable largely for the displays of US-China tension, rather than for political substance.

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